14 consecutive drops! The turning point of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has arrived?

Watch out for this possible rebound

From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, from Wuhan to the whole country, the epidemic of new crown pneumonia continued to develop.

This is bound to be a tough and tough battle. As of 24:00 on February 17, the cumulative number of confirmed cases across the country was over 72,000, of which nearly 60,000 were in Hubei.

Whenever the number of epidemics related to the epidemic is beating, it always touches the heart that always pays attention to this war. People are waiting. When will this epidemic end?

14 consecutive drops!

——The turning point of the epidemic has arrived?

According to data from the National Health and Medical Commission, as of 24:00 on the 17th, 79 new cases were confirmed in 30 provinces other than Hubei and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, which fell for two weeks and fell to double digits.

At the same time, on the 17th, there were no new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Jilin, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Ningxia, Qinghai, Tibet and other provinces. In addition, the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in many provinces fell to single digits.

At the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held on the afternoon of February 18, Mi Feng, spokesperson of the National Health and Medical Commission, said that compared with the high point, on February 17, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day fell to 2000 for the first time. Within the number of cases, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day outside Hubei Province fell to less than 100 for the first time, and the number of newly-increased death cases in a single day fell to less than 100 cases for the first time in the country, achieving three for the first time. The epidemic situation further improved.

Some netizens say that the word “drop” has never been so expected! Even more gratifying is that while the number of confirmed cases continues to decline, a set of data is rising.

As of the latest data, the number of patients cured and discharged across the country has exceeded 1,000 for 6 consecutive days, and the number of patients discharged cured has exceeded 10,000.

“Behind the data changes, the turning point of the epidemic has arrived.” Lin Bingliang, deputy director of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, said in an interview with a reporter from Chinanews.com: The number of new cases outside Hubei is declining, indicating that our country’s overall prevention and control strategy is very effective. In this respect, I think the inflection point has already occurred.

In fact, as early as 5 days ago, Zeng Guang, chief scientist of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has already made a judgment: the turning point in the decline of the epidemic has already appeared around February 5.

Zeng Guang pointed out that this is the inflection point calculated according to the number of confirmed cases. Because each patient must go through the entire process of exposure-infection-incubation period-onset-consultation-confirmation before the diagnosis, the actual inflection point should appear earlier than the diagnosis time. Much more.

However, Academician Zhong Nanshan’s judgment on the turning point of the epidemic was relatively cautious. On the 17th, he said in front of Wuhan that he expected that the number of newly confirmed cases will reach the peak in mid-late February, but this is not necessarily the turning point, it depends on the rework situation.

At 2400 on February 17, the Hubei Yichang Public Security Traffic Police adopted fixed-point inspection, patrol control, video tracking and other forms in various sections of the urban area to continuously carry out persuasion and investigation of vehicles traveling in the urban area. The picture shows the “escalation” epidemic prevention and control measures in Yichang, Hubei. Photo by Wang Yong

Overall attack

——Hubei, the main battlefield, looks forward to “clearing” as soon as possible

Back to Hubei, the main battlefield, “Descent” is also a key word for the local new crown pneumonia epidemic data in recent days.

According to reports, since the number of clinically diagnosed cases was added to the newly confirmed cases for the first time in Hubei, the daily number of newly confirmed cases in the province has dropped from the highest 14,000 cases to less than 2,000 currently.

In addition, the number of suspected cases in Hubei has also dropped from more than 9,000 on the 12th to less than 5,000 at present, which has been reduced by nearly half.

Good news also came from the ward. According to Guo Yanhong, the Supervisor of the Medical Administration and Hospital Administration of the National Health and Health Commission, the proportion of severely pneumonia patients with new coronavirus infection in Wuhan has fallen from the initial 38% to the present through early diagnosis and early treatment. 18%.

On the 16th, the Hubei Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government issued the “Opinions on Going All Out to Resolutely Win the Provincial New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Fight”, calling for “initiating a total offensive, decisive battle and decisive victory.

A day later, all 10 confirmed cases reported in the Shennongjia Forest District were cured, achieving zero infection by medical personnel, and taking the lead in completing the goal of clearing the confirmed cases.

The news is that the staff at the front line of fighting the epidemic are motivating, and it is confidence for the people living in the land of Jingchu. It also makes the outside world look forward to more, and there are more places in Hubei to achieve “zero” as soon as possible.

Prevention and Control Upgrade

——Never give up! Prevent regeneration rebound

Although the epidemic prevention and control has sent positive signals, the current situation is still in the urgent stage of attack.

At present, localities are gradually returning to work and production, and it is difficult to avoid the movement and gathering of people. Objectively speaking, during this period, there is a potential risk of epidemic spread, and it also poses new challenges to prevention and control.

This also made Zeng Guang worryingly said that he should not simply understand that the inflection point has emerged and the overall situation has been determined. It is important not to underestimate the negative impact of up to 160 million people on the return tide on the epidemic.

“Whether you return by train, coach or plane, they are all in a closed environment and easily lead to the spread of the virus. Whether you can spend the longest incubation period safely after returning to the city requires a lot of hard work.” He on social media Writes like this.

The good news is that Academician Zhong Nanshan said on the 17th whether reworkers’ movement would form a new peak, saying “personal estimates probably will not.”

How to continue the decline of new cases? Lin Bingliang told the reporter that the key is to continue to adhere to the current prevention and control strategy.

“From the current point of view, New Coronary Pneumonia is a viral disease, which has certain limitations in itself. But even so, we must still be alert to the occurrence of viral mutations and beware of the emergence of rebound inflection points.” He said.

Adherence to the current prevention and control strategy means that we must remain vigilant against the epidemic, and we ca n’t relax the tight strings in our hearts for a moment. Keep a high pressure and leave no chance for the virus.

Facing the unknown and risks of the epidemic, we must not relent!

On February 17, people wore masks to visit Baidi. On the same day, the weather in Hangzhou, Zhejiang was fine, and some citizens visited the West Lake. Photo by China News Agency reporter Shang Zeyang

When is normal life resumed?

——The next 14 days is the key

At present, resumption of work and production in many places outside Hubei are on the agenda. When to return to normal work and life has become a topic of concern to the outside world.

Lin Bingliang believes that the next 14 days will be the key. “After everyone (outside Hubei) returned to work, within two weeks, there was no clustered outbreak and the local epidemic did not expand. In this case, I think the epidemic It will be under control soon. ”

The decline of the numbers and the relief of the situation are a ganlin after a long drought, and it is also a booster for courageous progress.

From the battle of Hubei’s backwaters and the sound of the overall attack, to the national game of chess and the overall layout of joint defense and control, the closer it is to success, the more difficult it will be.

It ‘s like “half-ninety-nine-thousand-miles”. Only by playing steadily can we go to victory!