Pneumonia outbreak: latest study says elderly and sick people at greatest risk

China officially released details of the first batch of more than 70,000 new cases of Coronavirus Pneumonia (Covid-19), the largest study report since the outbreak.

According to data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 80% of cases are mild, with the highest risk for patients and the elderly. The study also points to high risks for medical staff.

The report came at a time when the director of Wuhan Wuchang Hospital died of pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus infection.

Liu Zhiming, 51, is the president of Wuhan Wuchang Hospital. Wuchang Hospital is one of the first designated hospitals in Wuhan for the new crown pneumonia. Liu Zhiming is also one of the most senior health officials who have died so far.

The results show that to date the overall mortality rate caused by the new coronavirus is 2.3%. In Hubei Province, the worst-hit area, the mortality rate was 2.9%, compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country. The latest official data released on February 18 showed that the cumulative death toll was 1,868, with 72,436 confirmed cases reported.

Chinese officials say 98 new deaths and 1,886 new confirmed cases have occurred in the past day. Of these, 93 new deaths and 1807 new confirmed cases occurred in Hubei. Authorities say more than 12,000 people have recovered.

On February 17, patients with the new coronavirus admitted to the Fangcai Hospital of Wuhan Sports Center were resting.

What did the study say?

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published a paper in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology on Monday (February 17), which studied all 72,314 cases of new coronavirus diagnosed in China as of February 11, including confirmed diagnosis, Suspected and asymptomatic cases.

Although this research report largely confirms previous descriptions of the virus and its mode of infection, this time it also includes a detailed classification of 44,672 confirmed cases across China.

Study finds zero mortality among young children

Some conclusions of the study include:

Approximately 80.9% of cases were judged to be mildly infected, 13.8% were severe, and critical were 4.7%.

The highest mortality rate is for those over 80 years old, about 14.8%.

There are no deaths among children under 9 years of age; the mortality rate for people under 39 is still low, at only 0.2%.

Mortality rates for people over 39 have gradually increased.

The mortality rate for people aged 40 to 50 is 0.4%; the mortality rate for people aged 50 to 60 is 1.3%; 3.6% for people aged 60 to 70.

The mortality rate for people over 70 is 8%.

Men (2.8%) have a higher mortality rate than women (1.7%).

Determining which existing diseases put pneumonia patients at greater risk: The study found that cardiovascular disease came first, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and hypertension.

Medical staff risk

The report also pointed out the risks for medical staff. The study said a total of 3019 health workers were infected, of whom 1716 were confirmed. And before February 11, which is also the statistical deadline for the study data, 5 deaths were confirmed.

On February 13, China also expanded the definition of patient diagnosis to include “clinically confirmed cases” previously calculated separately from “confirmed cases.

Future judgement of the epidemic

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The study found that the “prevalence curve of symptom attacks” peaked around January 23-26, and did not decline until February 11.

Studies show that a downward trend in the overall epidemic curve could mean “isolating entire cities, broadcasting important information (for example, emphasis on hand washing, wearing masks, and seeking care), and mobilizing multisectoral rapid response teams to help contain the epidemic.”

But the study also warned that as many people returned from long holidays, authorities “needed to prepare for a possible rebound in the epidemic.”

To curb the spread of the epidemic, China has blocked Wuhan (the largest city in Hubei) and other parts of Hubei Province, and imposed strict restrictions on transportation and travel throughout the country.