The Coronavirus tests how much the world depends on China

The manager of a hotel near Newark Liberty International Airport estimates that the outbreak of a new coronavirus-infected pneumonia caused them “more than $ 100,000 loss and is still increasing.” The main source of income for this hotel is Chinese tourists.

A company operating a Chinese bus tour in Manhattan is having to deal with as many as 300 booking cancellations because Chinese tourists cannot come to New York.

The owner of a travel agency in Queens originally booked two weeks of travel for 200 Chinese tourists, but is now considering firing employees … New York tour operators and travel agents are suffering from vacant guest rooms and empty coach bus Economic pain. Industry insiders say this will be a heavy economic price.

Many Chinese cities have begun to feel the impact of a slump in Chinese tourists as China suspends group tours and some airlines suspend flights to and from the country. Restaurant operators in Chinatown, London, UK have noticed a sharp decline in business.

“Compared with the previous months, our customers have been halved,” said Martin Ma, general manager of Jinli Restaurant. In addition to the sudden drop in Chinese tourists, restaurant and shop owners in New York’s three Chinatown have said concerns about the virus are also hurting business.

Chinatown, Manhattan (source: New York Times)

The “Tourism Economy” of the Oxford Economic Research Institute predicts that in 2020, tourists from the United States will decline by 28%, and spending will decrease by $ 5.8 billion. New York University assistant professor Sean Hannis said the related economic impact could be greater than during the SARS outbreak, as China accounted for less than 2% of foreign tourists in New York at the time. According to the New York City Convention and Visitors Bureau, nearly 8% of foreign tourists traveling to New York in 2018 came from China.

Qatar Al Jazeera website reported on February 5 that the original title: Travel restrictions on China could cost the US $ 10.3 billion. Analysts said travel restrictions on China related to the new coronavirus could affect the economies of several U.S. cities and states-areas that have benefited from the surge in Chinese tourists in recent years.

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analysis, the decrease in tourists from China reflects “the most direct connection between the US economy and the virus”. According to the “Tourism Economy” data, since the SARS outbreak in 2002, the number of Chinese entering the United States has increased by 1270%, reaching 2.8 million in 2019. The outbreak will reduce Chinese tourists ’spending in the United States by $ 10.3 billion, most of which will appear in 2020.

The impact of these losses is not evenly distributed across the United States. Chinese tourists like to go to big cities. They also go to shopping malls and national parks. If you evaluate the proportion of Chinese tourists in the total number of overseas tourists, Southern California’s Riverside has the most Chinese tourists, and New York’s Buffalo is also very popular. The two places have also been hit the most.

Although the US manufacturing data is optimistic, there are concerns that the United States will also suffer collateral damage. “We are waiting for vessels from China,” said O’Connell, a senior U.S. international trade consultant. “Those (US) importers with tight supply chains” will soon see shortages in inventory. If the situation persists, we will finally see exactly how much we have become dependent on Chinese manufacturers.