The epidemic situation in China has greatly improved.

Since the Spring Festival, the pace of oil price is more consistent with that of newly confirmed / suspected cases. The newly confirmed cases have been reduced to three figures for several consecutive days, and the proportion of existing total cases and medical observation has continued to decline. The vaccine animal experiment announced the production of antibodies, the clinical treatment effect of plasma was significant, and the epidemic situation in China was temporarily controlled. The traffic volume picked up steadily, the recovery of enterprises was accelerated, the coal consumption of industrial production and the trading area of commercial housing both bottomed out and picked up. Domestic demand has gradually entered the recovery channel. The international epidemic is spreading rapidly. The number of confirmed cases in Japan and South Korea has reached 850 and 833 respectively. Among the confirmed cases in Japan, 691 were from the diamond princess cruise ship, and super communicators appeared at religious gatherings in South Korea. There were 89, 79, 43, 35 and 34 confirmed cases in Singapore, Italy, Iran and the United States. Some of the confirmed cases in the United States came from the evacuees from the diamond princess, and the government said it would not rule out the suspension of school in the future. At present, the overseas epidemic is still in the early stage of development. If it is not effectively controlled and leads to a large outbreak, the financial market and oil price prospects will be under pressure again. Short term oil price is under pressure twice. International oil prices have fallen before rising since the Spring Festival. The decline comes from the demand side pressure brought by China’s epidemic and the rise comes from the supply side support brought by OPEC’s production reduction. The long and short factors in the early stage have been gradually realized: the pressure on the demand side is gradually improving with the decline of the domestic epidemic and the promotion of resumption of work, and the support of OPEC production decline is also reflected to some extent in the recent oil price recovery. New potential long empty fermentation in the later stage: the acceleration of the spread of the short-term international epidemic will make the financial market and the oil price prospect under pressure again. In the medium term, if the OPEC decision to expand production reduction and the US sanctions on Venezuela lead to the decline of production, the risk of supply interruption will rise again. Strategy suggestion: many SC orders entered on February 5 have left the venue till February 21. On February 24, the company entered SC empty list, temporarily holding until the international epidemic is under control, or OPEC determines to expand production reduction.